Climate change making El Nino and La Nina harder to forecast

16 September 2025

Tom Saunders, writing for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation:

Thanks to climate change and a rapid warming trend in our oceans, the historical record and current analysis of the two Pacific phases has become contaminated. El Niño, the warm episode, is being falsely observed, while the cool state, La Niña, is at risk of going undetected.

The two well-known climate patterns have a significant influence on weather, either making Australian summers dryer and warmer, or wetter and not quite so warm. Of course the impact of both systems is not limited to Australia, but across the Pacific ocean, and beyond. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before climate change began to have impact on these weather patterns.