Tune into the vibe, ignore the opinion polls

7 November 2024

Tyler Cowen, writing at Marginal Revolution, last July:

Democrats and leftists are in fact less happy as people than conservatives are, on average. Americans noticed this, if only subconsciously.

Cowen made a whole heap of observations — I’ve quoted but one — about the then upcoming US Presidential election. But it’s tuning into the vibe that interests me. Opinion polls may say one thing, but it’s the mood on the street, if you can tap into it, understand it, that matters.

I can’t say the result was what I hoped for, but let’s keep an eye on the vibe, and see what it tells us going forward.