Tune into the vibe, ignore the opinion polls

Showing all posts tagged: politics

Tune into the vibe, ignore the opinion polls

7 November 2024

Tyler Cowen, writing at Marginal Revolution, last July:

Democrats and leftists are in fact less happy as people than conservatives are, on average. Americans noticed this, if only subconsciously.

Cowen made a whole heap of observations — I’ve quoted but one — about the then upcoming US Presidential election. But it’s tuning into the vibe that interests me. Opinion polls may say one thing, but it’s the mood on the street, if you can tap into it, understand it, that matters.

I can’t say the result was what I hoped for, but let’s keep an eye on the vibe, and see what it tells us going forward.

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America, current affairs, politics

New York Times publishes stinging rebuke of Donald Trump

5 November 2024

On the eve of the US Presidential election, The New York Times has published a strongly worded dis-endorsement of Republican candidate Donald Trump. It’s short, succinct, and well worth reading.

Unlike counterpart publications, including The Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times, The New York Times issued an endorsement of Democrat candidate Kamala Harris, at the end of September.

The result of the Presidential election is usually clear by early afternoon Wednesday, east coast of Australia time. In terms of the Electoral College numbers that is. I suspect there’ll be quite a number of eyes on the outcome here tomorrow afternoon.

American bloggers, personal website publishers, may be among ‘enemies within’

1 November 2024

American newspapers The Los Angeles Times, and The Washington Post, have come under fire for declining to endorse US Presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Their refusal to endorse Harris does not, however, from stem from a desire to back Donald Trump. Rather, both publications had prepared endorsements for Harris, but were blocked from publishing them by their owners.

The suggestion is the proprietors of both outlets fear they may face retribution for endorsing Harris, should Trump be elected. For some time Trump has threatened reprisals against Americans he sees as being the “enemies from within”, should he assume the presidency. Those showing support for Harris — in what is an election in a democracy, no less — would appear to among these “enemies”.

But major news outlets are not the only publishers concerned by the prospect of a Trump presidency. Bloggers, and personal website publishers, are likewise worried that their writing may see them labelled as an enemy within. People, like you and me, who are exercising their right to the freedom of speech, the cornerstone of any democracy, are also fearful of the outcome of the election, as US blogger Tracey Durnell writes:

In the lead-up to the election, I’ve been thinking about this blog: how much it adds to my life to be able to write and think freely… but also, how a written record of my views could become a liability if Trump wins the election or commits insurrection 2.0. I chose years ago to blog under my real name — and my political views are pretty clear. To a Christian extremist, a vocal “porn-writing” leftist woman like me — a woman without children, no less — is “the enemy within.”

If voting in the US election, Australians would elect Kamala Harris

31 October 2024

A recent poll of voters in Australia and New Zealand has found most would prefer Democrat candidate Kamala Harris to win the upcoming American Presidential election, over her Republican rival Donald Trump:

“Fifty per cent of Australians say they’d vote for Harris compared to 26 per cent who say they’d vote for Trump,” says David Talbot, director Talbot Mills Research. Support for Harris among Kiwis is identical at 50 per cent while support for Trump is a little lower than in Australia at 22 per cent.

The same polling however revealed men aged under thirty would be more likely to back Trump than Harris. Support, meanwhile, for Trump among women in the same age group, is “minuscule”.

Interest in the US election is running high in Australia, as is often the case. This gives some weight to the notion that the election is not only national, but also global, a point Guardian writer Cas Mudde made four years ago:

US presidential elections are not just national elections; they are global elections, too. Although the US presidency is not as all-powerful as many people think, it is certainly, both inside and outside of the US, the most powerful elected position in the world.

Conservatives and progressives have different brain structures

17 October 2024

When it comes to political leanings, I’m probably centre/left. But I have a number of family and acquaintances who definitely lean more to the right.

Of course, everyone is different, but certain of the mannerisms of the more conservative people I know are particularly distinct. To me, these seemed to go beyond regular personal preference. An inclination towards adhering to convention, and a dislike of uncertainty, to cite a few, seem quite apparent to me. And this well before discussing voting intentions.

Now some recent University College London research, published by Current Biology, seems to confirm what I’ve long suspect: there are differences in the brain structures of politically left leaning and right leaning people:

We speculate that the association of gray matter volume of the amygdala and anterior cingulate cortex with political attitudes that we observed may reflect emotional and cognitive traits of individuals that influence their inclination to certain political orientations. For example, our findings are consistent with the proposal that political orientation is associated with psychological processes for managing fear and uncertainty. The amygdala has many functions, including fear processing. Individuals with a large amygdala are more sensitive to fear, which, taken together with our findings, might suggest the testable hypothesis that individuals with larger amygdala are more inclined to integrate conservative views into their belief system. Similarly, it is striking that conservatives are more sensitive to disgust, and the insula is involved in the feeling of disgust. On the other hand, our finding of an association between anterior cingulate cortex volume and political attitudes may be linked with tolerance to uncertainty.

If medical terms baffle you, as they do me, read Sydney Morning Herald writer Angus Dalton’s analysis of the Current Biology report.

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personality, politics, psychology

Should right to disconnect laws be scrapped because of lazy workers?

15 July 2024

Melbourne based Workplace Relations lawyer Paul O’Halloran, writing for the Sydney Morning Herald, on Australian “right to disconnect” workplace laws that come into effect on Monday 26 August 2024:

Well, laziness is an increasing trend in the cases I defend for employers. Putting aside pandemic lockdowns where all sorts of things other than work were going on in people’s homes during virtual business hours, more recently I have been involved in matters where employees were surreptitiously sleeping on the job; forging time sheets with fabricated work hours; using fake medical certificates to take sickies; or watching Netflix while claiming to be working from home.

There’s still this perception that people working from home are bludging. Doing stuff-all. Watching Netflix all day (or some of the day). No doubt “all sorts of things other than work” take place in a work from home environment, child care duties among them. But is productivity not measured by, you know, productivity? If the required work is being turned in, why begrudge a busy parent for doing a load of washing in the gaps in-between workplace duties? It’s called work-life balance for a reason.

The solution though to this apparent reluctance to work at home, is to get everyone back into the workplace, where an eye can kept on them to ensure they do their “full eight-hour” day. The problem with the full eight-hour day though, is that it doesn’t exist. An American study found workers putting in an eight-hour day, actually did closer to three hours actual work a day.

Three hours? Say what? Much of the eight hour day is lost to web browsing and social media, making food and snacks, calling family, cigarette/vape breaks, and, last but by no means least: looking for another job. All under the watchful eye of workplace handlers. It seems to me then, if you’re putting in a minimum of three hours work, you’re doing well. Bonus points if it’s so-called deep work.

Certainly, there are lazy workers. Those being paid to do eight (would-be) hours work, but sitting in the break-room all day. Or “meetings”. But they’re in the minority, and are eventually weeded out. But leave the work-from-home people alone. Leave them to get on with their work. If it’s at least three hours per day, then there’s nothing to complain about.

If you’ve noticed posting here as slowed down at tad lately, it’s because work (from home) has been flat out. No Netflix and chill here (during work hours). I’m freelance, so the disconnect laws may not quite apply to me (but I do have do-not-disturb). Nonetheless, I am looking forward to some disconnect, and doing a little bit more here soon.

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Australia, politics, trends

Aaron Sorkin penning a sequel to The Social Network in response to January 6

3 May 2024

I squeezed in two screenings of The Social Network — the 2010 film by David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin, dramatizing the founding of Facebook — on the day it was released in Australia. I went up to the local cinema the morning it opened, so I could write about it here, then returned to the same cinema for an evening viewing.

Don’t get me wrong here, I’m no fan of Facebook itself, but various trailers, and the pre-opening hype, had me excited. Facebook was once a start-up, a small business, and the dramatization of the early days promised to be a doozy. The movie sits in my home library now, and I still look forward to rolling it out once or twice a year.

Even today, I still wait in anticipation for the night-club scene, where Justin Timberlake’s character Sean Parker, utters the line this is our time. The track playing during the scene, Sound Of Violence, by Dennis De Laat, is still on my Spotify favourites playlist.

There’s no two ways: I’m a fan of The Social Network.

And news the other day that the film’s co-screenwriter Aaron Sorkin, was penning a sequel, saw me getting euphoric all over again. But I suspect the sequel, of “some kind”, will strike a far more sombre tone than the original. This because Sorkin believes Facebook played some part in the 2021, January 6 insurrection, in the United States:

Sorkin would not answer why he blamed Facebook for Trump supporters storming the U.S. Capitol, but he teased: “You’re going to need to buy a movie ticket.” “I’m trying [to write a movie about it],” Sorkin elaborated. “Facebook has been, among other things, tuning its algorithm to promote the most divisive material possible.”

I wonder if the original cast, Jesse Eisenberg (as Mark Zuckerberg), and Andrew Garfield (as Eduardo Saverin), among them, would reprise their earlier roles? It’d make for a great opportunity to catch up with some of the key players, and see what they’re up to nowadays. It might also add a lighter touch to what could otherwise be sullen proceedings.

As such, I see a role for the Winklevoss twins here. They’ve been busy since The Social Network days. In addition to rowing in the 2008 Olympics, they founded a cryptocurrency exchange, and a venture capital company. But that’s not all. They also formed a band, Mars Junction, which they describe as “a hard-hitting rock band”.

Check out this short clip of them performing at a gig about two years ago. Perhaps, in the proposed sequel, it could be imagined the Winklevoss’ had bought a house next door to Zuckerberg’s, and both parties find themselves in conflict again. This time though, over loud Mars Junction band practice sessions that annoy the hell out of Zuckerberg.

Of course, I can’t see that happening, but I can dream. Whatever, I’ll be looking out for the sequel once it is released.

Should political leaders be elected to office by sortation?

26 September 2023

Adam Grant, an organisational psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania, writing for The New York Times, suggests sortation, a method of selecting public office holders in Ancient Greece, be given consideration:

People expect leaders chosen at random to be less effective than those picked systematically. But in multiple experiments led by the psychologist Alexander Haslam, the opposite held true. Groups actually made smarter decisions when leaders were chosen at random than when they were elected by a group or chosen based on leadership skill.

Sortition is election by lottery, as Encyclopaedia Britannica explains. While some people “elected” to office may be lacking in a certain degree of experience, they are said to feel a strong sense of responsibility, and take a diligent approach their duties.

Sortition, election by lot, a method of choosing public officials in some ancient Greek city-states. It was used especially in the Athenian democracy, from which most information about the practice is derived. With few exceptions, all magistrates were chosen by lot, beginning with the archons in 487–486 BC; likewise the Boule (council) of 500 and the juries of the law courts were chosen by lot. The practice of sortition obviated electoral races and provided for the regular turnover of officeholders.

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history, politics

An alternative to a Voice: an Indigenous Australian state?

26 September 2023

In a few weeks Australians will vote in a referendum to decide whether the Australian constitution should be amended to include a Voice, an advisory body, for the nation’s Indigenous people. It’s an idea some people are not in favour of though, including a number of First Nations Australians.

Some Indigenous Australians are concerned a Voice may be tantamount to ceding sovereignty. Some would prefer a treaty. Others, the idea of a set number of Indigenous seats in the Australian parliament, along, for instance, the lines of the Māori electorates in New Zealand.

Misha Saul however suggests the interests of Aboriginal people would be better served by the formation of an Indigenous state, rather than ideas such as a Voice, treaties, and even Native title.

Isn’t this the most ambitious and satisfying of objectives? Indigenous Australians could have a state of their own, far larger than the miraculous successes of the twentieth century like Israel of Singapore of South Korea.

This is the first time I’ve heard of such a proposal.

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Australia, Indigenous culture, politics

Four hundred Australian authors back Voice to Parliament

23 August 2023

Four hundred Australian authors have thrown their support behind the campaign that seeks to amend the Australian constitution to include an Indigenous Voice to parliament.

Katherine Brabon, Shankari Chandran (winner of the 2023 Miles Franklin literary award), Mick Cummins, Sophie Cunningham, Peter FitzSimons, Robert Lukins, Andrew Pippos, Christos Tsiolkas, Pip Williams, Tim Winton, and Charlotte Wood, are among authors who have put their name to the Writers for the Voice website:

We, Writers for the Voice, accept the generous, modest invitation of First Nations Peoples in the Uluru Statement from the Heart to walk with them towards a better Australia.

We support their call for recognition via a constitutionally enshrined Voice to Parliament because we believe passionately that this major reform, the product of broad grassroots consultation and supported by the great majority of First Nations Peoples, will lead to better outcomes for First Nations Peoples. It’s only fair.

What a simple, straightforward, to the point, statement. Contrast that with the scare campaign that some people who are opposed to the idea of the voice, are orchestrating.

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